With Pope Francis’ passing, speculation and gambling on the next pope have skyrocketed, but who will ultimately wear the papal tiara?
Quick Takes
- Cardinals Parolin and Tagle are frontrunners for the next papacy.
- The papal conclave will involve 133 cardinals.
- Betting platforms report millions wagered on the conclave.
- It is a smaller betting market compared to political elections.
- The conclave’s secretive nature fuels betting uncertainty.
Frontrunners in the Papal Race
The recent passing of Pope Francis has triggered an intense period of speculation and anticipation as the College of Cardinals assembles to elect the next pope. Among the leading candidates are Cardinals Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle. Parolin, an Italian Vatican diplomat, is considered a compromise candidate, while Tagle, from the Philippines, is envisioned as an “Asian Francis” due to his social justice commitments.
The betting landscape reflects this speculation. As of now, Vatican Cardinal Secretary of State Parolin is leading the betting odds with 15-8, followed closely by Tagle with 5-2 odds. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen significant activity with bets focused not only on the potential pope but also on anticipated papal names, nationality, and the number of rounds needed for a decision.
The Betting Market and Its Significance
Harry Crane, a statistics professor, highlights that the papal betting market is relatively small compared to presidential elections, which involve billions. The papal betting scene, driven largely by recreational bettors, lacks the rigorous analysis often seen in political markets. “It’s not a trivially small market, but it’s quite small by comparison” – this sentiment underscores the betting community’s cautious approach to predicting the conclave outcome.
Aside from Parolin and Tagle, other contenders like Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson and Italy’s Matteo Zuppi add intrigue to the speculation. Turkson’s candidacy could represent a historic shift as the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, Zuppi’s advocacy for migrants paints him as a potential bridge-builder within the church.
The Conclave’s Secrecy and Public Interest
The conclave is set to begin promptly at 4:30 p.m. in Rome’s Sistine Chapel, with its traditionally secretive nature intensifying public curiosity. The cardinals will vote in seclusion, with black smoke symbolizing continued deliberation and white smoke announcing a new pope. The conclave proceedings remain cloaked in secrecy, which adds a layer of unpredictability to the betting markets.
“Current betting odds, favoring cardinals like Parolin and Tagle, probably reflect general perceptions, media attention and public profile rather than special insider knowledge or highly accurate predictive insight,” remarks Leighton Vaughan Williams, an economics professor at the UK’s Nottingham Business School. This statement captures the inherent challenges of predicting an outcome when the decision process is veiled from the public eye.
