
(FeaturedHeadlines.com) The United States’ National Defense Strategy labels China as the country’s pacing challenge, reflecting the rise of Beijing’s capabilities and aspirations on the world stage. However, the US could find itself single handedly defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island, according to a June 2024 RAND Corporation report.
US allies including Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom could be reluctant to commit troops to help defend Taiwan, the think tank said. The countries would likely limit their involvement to diplomatic, logistical, and material support.
A variety of factors could impact the countries’ decisions on whether or not to commit troops to the conflict. Despite Japan’s proximity to the hypothetical conflict, fears of a retaliatory attack by China and a tradition of pacifism could limit their response.
The report is based on an open-source literature review, discussions with analysts and policymakers, and questionnaires sent to diplomats, defense officials, policy experts, businesspeople, journalists, and lawmakers in the four so-called “middle power” countries.
China does not view middle powers in the Asia-Pacific region as threats because they lack the military strength to counter China, either alone or as part of a larger coalition, the think tank said. However, China believes that invading Taiwan could jeopardize its efforts to legitimize its domestic political system.
The report recommends that middle powers develop a sanctions plan to impose against China if it invades Taiwan. Middle powers should also increase foreign policy capabilities by strengthening material power and commitment to the Asia-Pacific region.
A conflict between the US and China is neither imminent nor inevitable, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. Nevertheless, communications between Washington and Beijing are vital to avoiding miscalculations and misunderstandings, Austin said.
Although Taiwan is understandably nervous about the possibility of a Chinese invasion, the US and China both appear uninterested in sparking a major-powers conflict; but if such a conflict does emerge, middle powers may not come to Taiwan’s aid, leaving it to the US to defend the island.
Copyright 2024, FeaturedHeadlines.com